At Christmastime a year ago, Toronto-area realtors had good reason to celebrate. The year ended with record high sales and the industry never looked healthier. "Home buyers had to stop at Chapters last year for reading material just to stand in line for a condo," says realtor Mike Donia. "The banks were lending you money hand over fist."
One year later the turnaround has been dramatic and unprecedented.
At the end of 2007 prices rose by 7 per cent and sales by 12 per cent over the previous year.
But in September, as the global credit crunch started to exact a toll, the Toronto market finally succumbed to a 3 per cent price decline, the first such drop in more than a decade. By the end of November, the average home was some $25,000 cheaper than it was during the same time last year.
"The swiftness of the change in real estate market conditions and market sentiment was quite surprising," says RBC senior economist Robert Hogue. "For most of us looking at where the GTA economy was heading it was fairly clear there would be some dampening, but over the last few months it looked as if the market just priced in all the problems at once."
Given the credit crunch on Wall Street that has spread to markets globally, the question remains as to how much further Canadian households will be affected in 2009? For the average homeowner, the worry is whether prices will fall further and, if so, by how much.
Economists missed calling the real estate decline by a wide margin, to the point that last month the Bank of Canada warned ominously that many Canadians were in danger of losing their homes if the economic crisis gets worse.
But how did we get to this point?
The mantra, repeated endlessly by the real estate industry and some analysts, was that Canada was largely isolated from the pain in the United States, and that high oil prices and a more conservative approach to lending had helped us to partially decouple from sectors of the global economy.
"We're fine – it's the rest of the world that has problems" seemed to be the key message over the past few years.
"Canadians have watched with amazement for nearly two years now at the collapse of the housing sector in the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries that experienced overvalued housing prices with the sense that markets in this country stand on more solid ground," says Hogue.
It wasn't until last year, when prices started to fall in western provinces that some economists started to question the strength of the Canadian housing market.
And while sales in Toronto fell every month last year compared with the previous year, prices seemed to be holding the line.
"We're fine – it's the western provinces that have the problems – they appreciated too far and too fast" seemed to be the consensus then.
Analysts forecast that, after a decade-long run, the Greater Toronto Area's real estate market would be in for a "soft landing," and they seemed to be right.
In January, sales were down by only 2 per cent – a rounding error compared with the record numbers of 2007.
As the year progressed, sales started to decline further, but more importantly for homeowners, prices didn't.
But since September, prices and sales started to fall. The most recent numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board show that, in the first two weeks of December, there were 1,487 sales, or about 48 per cent less than the same time in 2007.
Most people are hoping this is just a blip on the way to greener pastures.
After all, the Canadian economy is still fundamentally sound. It's true that our export earnings, job growth and corporate balance sheets are better than other nations, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said last month that Canada will lead the G7 nations in economic recovery in 2010.
A lot, of course, depends on what happens to our neighbours to the south. A prolonged recession means that fewer Americans will be buying cars from Ontario or lumber from British Columbia.
During the last bubble, average prices of existing home in Toronto hit $280,000 in 1989 and took seven years to sink downward, hitting bottom in 1996 at $196,000 before taking off again in 1997.
No one expects this market to be as brutal, but then again, no one expected oil to be below $50 U.S. per barrel, and a Canadian dollar more than 20 per cent less than at the start of the year.
To see what's in store for this year, the Star asked some of the country's top economists what they thought 2009 would bring for the real estate market:
Benjamin Tal
Senior economist, CIBC Capital Markets
"The question is what kind of correction are we having?" asks Tal. "Are we seeing a U.S.-style meltdown, or simply a recessionary correction?"
Tal says that Canada never had a subprime problem in the league of the United States, which means a market correction here will be more moderate.
"What we have is the U.S. situation minus the subprime problem, which gives you Canada," says Tal. "It's not a freefall, but it will still be a recession.
"In that case it's reasonable to expect to see a notable decline in major cities."
Tal expects average prices across the country to fall another 10 to 12 per cent by the end of 2009.
"Is this a crisis? No. Is it pretty? Still no, and you will lose two years of price appreciation. But this is part of the economic cycle."
Tal predicts that there may be a slight uptick in sales in the spring but "nothing significant" as the market will continue to level off till the end of the year.
After 2009, he is forecasting that the market will "flatline" for three or possibly four years, with not much activity, similar to the 1992 to 1997 period in the Toronto market after the last real estate bubble burst.
The most immediate problem for the Toronto market is a potential oversupply of newly built condominiums, says the economist.
Condo pricing will lead the correction down, even as he expects some future supply to be cut as developers are unable to get financing for some projects. He is bullish on the condo market in the longer run of at least five to 10 years, because new immigrants and baby boomers still will be attracted to that form of housing, says Tal.
Carl Gomez
VP research, Bentall Capital
Canada's housing market is "modestly overvalued" with home prices needing to fall by as much as 25 to 30 per cent from the peak in Alberta and British Columbia, says Gomez.
Ontario prices, he figures, are about 10 per cent overvalued.
"The market is in correction phase, and the question is how far back will we continue to go?" asks Gomez.
Protracted job losses in the key Ontario market, for example, would mean further pain. And while manufacturing has been hit over the years, Toronto has been largely isolated from the problems because of its strong financial services sector, says Gomez.
"You are starting to see some problems in the services sector now. They have been a major driver of growth in Toronto, everything from banks to insurance companies to accountants and realtors. We haven't really seen this shoe drop yet, but if you see things coming off dramatically, then things will definitely get worse and prices will be pushed down further."
Like Tal, Gomez sees the most vulnerability in the Toronto condo market.
"In some pockets it's dominated by speculators. If they sense they are not getting the kind of return they want, they are the first to pull the plug," says Gomez.
Robert Hogue
Senior economist, RBC
The next few months will be significant to determine where the market is heading, says Hogue.
"But given the economic context where conditions have deteriorated quite significantly, you'd be hard pressed to see a quick recovery," he says. "For 2009 we will likely remain in a period of fairly soft sales and declining prices."
A housing affordability study prepared by Hogue shows that homes are becoming modestly more affordable in the Toronto market.
It takes 53.3 per cent of pre-tax earnings to afford a bungalow in the Toronto market. But that's still up from the long-term average of 48.3 per cent.
"That means you've got to have a decline in interest rates or prices of homes coming down to meet the long-term average."
Still, Toronto looks solid compared with some other Canadian cities, where the affordability index is 33 per cent higher than long-term averages for Vancouver and 40 per cent for Saskatoon.
For Toronto economist Will Dunning, the most important numbers are the jobs figures; employed Canadians mean mortgage-paying customers for new and existing homes.
Canadian employers cut 71,000 jobs in November, the worst single-month figure in 26 years.
As a result, Dunning isn't looking for a bright 2009 – and his forecast is for average prices to fall by up to 8 per cent by the end of next year.
Last month, he released a report that forecast that there would be "substantial correction" in the condominium market, given that there were more than 30,000 completions in the pipeline for the Toronto area.
